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Registro completo
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Biblioteca (s) : |
INIA Las Brujas; INIA Treinta y Tres. |
Fecha : |
12/11/2015 |
Actualizado : |
09/10/2019 |
Tipo de producción científica : |
Artículos en Revistas Indexadas Internacionales |
Autor : |
MARCAIDA, M.; ASSENG, S.; EWERT, F.; BASSU, S.; DURAND, J.L.; LI, T.; MARTRE, P.; ADAM, M.; AGGARWAL, P.K.; ANGULO, C.; BARON, C.; BASSO, B.; BERTUZZI, P.; BIERNATH, C.; BOOGAARD, H.; BOOTE, K.J.; BOUMAN, B.; BREGAGLIO, S.; BRISSON, N.; BUIS, S.; CAMMARANO, D.; CHALLINOR, A.J.; CONFALONIERI, R.; CONIJN, J.G.; CORBEELS, M.; DERYNG, D.; DE SANCTIS, G.; DOLTRA, J.; FUMOTO, T.; GAYDON, D.; GAYLER, S.; GOLDBERG, R.; GRANT, R.F.; GRASSINI, P.; HATFIELD, J.L.; HASEGAWA, T.; HENG, L.; HOEK, S.; HOOKER, J.; HUNT, L.A.; INGWERSEN, J.; IZAURRALDE, R.C.; JONGSCHAAP, R.E.E.; JONES, J.W.; KEMANIAN, R.A.; KERSEBAUM, K.C.; KIM, S.-H.; LIZASO, J.; MÜLLER, C.; NAKAGAWA, H.; NARESH KUMAR, S.; NENDEL, C.; O'LEARY, G.J.; OLESEN, J.E.; ORIOL, P.; OSBORNE, T.M.; PALOSUO, T.; PRAVIA, V.; PRIESACK, E.; RIPOCHE, D.; ROSENZWEIG, C.; RUANE, A.C.; RUGET, F.; SAU, F.; SEMENOV, M.A.; SHCHERBAK, I.; SINGH, B.; SINGH, U.; SOO, H.K.; STEDUTO, P.; STÖCKLE, C.; STRATONOVITCH, P.; STRECK, T.; SUPIT, I.; TANG, L.; TAO, F.; TEIXEIRA, E.I.; THORBURN, P.; TIMLIN, D.; TRAVASSO, M.; RÖTTER, R.P.; WAHA, K.; WALLACH, D.; WHITE, J.W.; WILKENS, P.; WILLIAMS, J.R.; WOLF, J.; YIN, X.; YOSHIDA, H.; ZHANG, Z.; ZHU, Y. |
Afiliación : |
MARIA VIRGINIA PRAVIA NIN, INIA (Instituto Nacional de Investigación Agropecuaria), Uruguay. |
Título : |
A statistical analysis of three ensembles of crop model responses to temperature and CO2 concentration. |
Fecha de publicación : |
2015 |
Fuente / Imprenta : |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2015, v.214-215, p. 483-493. |
ISSN : |
0168-1923 |
DOI : |
10.1016/j.agrformet.2015.09.013 |
Idioma : |
Inglés |
Notas : |
Article history: Received 6 March 2015 / Received in revised form 29 July 2015 / Accepted 20 September 2015 / Available online 1 October 2015. |
Contenido : |
ABSTRACT.
Ensembles of process-based crop models are increasingly used to simulate crop growth for scenariosof temperature and/or precipitation changes corresponding to different projections of atmospheric CO2concentrations. This approach generates large datasets with thousands of simulated crop yield data. Suchdatasets potentially provide new information but it is difficult to summarize them in a useful way due totheir structural complexities. An associated issue is that it is not straightforward to compare crops and tointerpolate the results to alternative climate scenarios not initially included in the simulation protocols.Here we demonstrate that statistical models based on random-coefficient regressions are able to emulateensembles of process-based crop models. An important advantage of the proposed statistical models isthat they can interpolate between temperature levels and between CO2concentration levels, and canthus be used to calculate temperature and [CO2] thresholds leading to yield loss or yield gain, without re-running the original complex crop models. Our approach is illustrated with three yield datasets simulatedby 19 maize models, 26 wheat models, and 13 rice models. Several statistical models are fitted to thesedatasets, and are then used to analyze the variability of the yield response to [CO2] and temperature.Based on our results, we show that, for wheat, a [CO2] increase is likely to outweigh the negative effectof a temperature increase of +2◦C in the considered sites. Compared to wheat, required levels of [CO2]increase are much higher for maize, and intermediate for rice. For all crops, uncertainties in simulatingclimate change impacts increase more with temperature than with elevated [CO2].
© 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. MenosABSTRACT.
Ensembles of process-based crop models are increasingly used to simulate crop growth for scenariosof temperature and/or precipitation changes corresponding to different projections of atmospheric CO2concentrations. This approach generates large datasets with thousands of simulated crop yield data. Suchdatasets potentially provide new information but it is difficult to summarize them in a useful way due totheir structural complexities. An associated issue is that it is not straightforward to compare crops and tointerpolate the results to alternative climate scenarios not initially included in the simulation protocols.Here we demonstrate that statistical models based on random-coefficient regressions are able to emulateensembles of process-based crop models. An important advantage of the proposed statistical models isthat they can interpolate between temperature levels and between CO2concentration levels, and canthus be used to calculate temperature and [CO2] thresholds leading to yield loss or yield gain, without re-running the original complex crop models. Our approach is illustrated with three yield datasets simulatedby 19 maize models, 26 wheat models, and 13 rice models. Several statistical models are fitted to thesedatasets, and are then used to analyze the variability of the yield response to [CO2] and temperature.Based on our results, we show that, for wheat, a [CO2] increase is likely to outweigh the negative effectof a temperature increase of +2◦C in... Presentar Todo |
Palabras claves : |
Climate change; CROP MODEL; Emulator; MAIZE; Meta-model; MODELIZACIÓN DE LOS CULTIVOS; RICE; Statistical model; WHEAT; Yield. |
Thesagro : |
ARROZ; CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO; MAÍZ; MODELOS ESTADISTICOS; TRIGO. |
Asunto categoría : |
A50 Investigación agraria |
Marc : |
LEADER 05363naa a2201417 a 4500 001 1053856 005 2019-10-09 008 2015 bl uuuu u00u1 u #d 022 $a0168-1923 024 7 $a10.1016/j.agrformet.2015.09.013$2DOI 100 1 $aMARCAIDA, M. 245 $aA statistical analysis of three ensembles of crop model responses to temperature and CO2 concentration. 260 $c2015 500 $aArticle history: Received 6 March 2015 / Received in revised form 29 July 2015 / Accepted 20 September 2015 / Available online 1 October 2015. 520 $aABSTRACT. Ensembles of process-based crop models are increasingly used to simulate crop growth for scenariosof temperature and/or precipitation changes corresponding to different projections of atmospheric CO2concentrations. This approach generates large datasets with thousands of simulated crop yield data. Suchdatasets potentially provide new information but it is difficult to summarize them in a useful way due totheir structural complexities. An associated issue is that it is not straightforward to compare crops and tointerpolate the results to alternative climate scenarios not initially included in the simulation protocols.Here we demonstrate that statistical models based on random-coefficient regressions are able to emulateensembles of process-based crop models. An important advantage of the proposed statistical models isthat they can interpolate between temperature levels and between CO2concentration levels, and canthus be used to calculate temperature and [CO2] thresholds leading to yield loss or yield gain, without re-running the original complex crop models. Our approach is illustrated with three yield datasets simulatedby 19 maize models, 26 wheat models, and 13 rice models. Several statistical models are fitted to thesedatasets, and are then used to analyze the variability of the yield response to [CO2] and temperature.Based on our results, we show that, for wheat, a [CO2] increase is likely to outweigh the negative effectof a temperature increase of +2◦C in the considered sites. Compared to wheat, required levels of [CO2]increase are much higher for maize, and intermediate for rice. For all crops, uncertainties in simulatingclimate change impacts increase more with temperature than with elevated [CO2]. © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 650 $aARROZ 650 $aCAMBIO CLIMÁTICO 650 $aMAÍZ 650 $aMODELOS ESTADISTICOS 650 $aTRIGO 653 $aClimate change 653 $aCROP MODEL 653 $aEmulator 653 $aMAIZE 653 $aMeta-model 653 $aMODELIZACIÓN DE LOS CULTIVOS 653 $aRICE 653 $aStatistical model 653 $aWHEAT 653 $aYield 700 1 $aASSENG, S. 700 1 $aEWERT, F. 700 1 $aBASSU, S. 700 1 $aDURAND, J.L. 700 1 $aLI, T. 700 1 $aMARTRE, P. 700 1 $aADAM, M. 700 1 $aAGGARWAL, P.K. 700 1 $aANGULO, C. 700 1 $aBARON, C. 700 1 $aBASSO, B. 700 1 $aBERTUZZI, P. 700 1 $aBIERNATH, C. 700 1 $aBOOGAARD, H. 700 1 $aBOOTE, K.J. 700 1 $aBOUMAN, B. 700 1 $aBREGAGLIO, S. 700 1 $aBRISSON, N. 700 1 $aBUIS, S. 700 1 $aCAMMARANO, D. 700 1 $aCHALLINOR, A.J. 700 1 $aCONFALONIERI, R. 700 1 $aCONIJN, J.G. 700 1 $aCORBEELS, M. 700 1 $aDERYNG, D. 700 1 $aDE SANCTIS, G. 700 1 $aDOLTRA, J. 700 1 $aFUMOTO, T. 700 1 $aGAYDON, D. 700 1 $aGAYLER, S. 700 1 $aGOLDBERG, R. 700 1 $aGRANT, R.F. 700 1 $aGRASSINI, P. 700 1 $aHATFIELD, J.L. 700 1 $aHASEGAWA, T. 700 1 $aHENG, L. 700 1 $aHOEK, S. 700 1 $aHOOKER, J. 700 1 $aHUNT, L.A. 700 1 $aINGWERSEN, J. 700 1 $aIZAURRALDE, R.C. 700 1 $aJONGSCHAAP, R.E.E. 700 1 $aJONES, J.W. 700 1 $aKEMANIAN, R.A. 700 1 $aKERSEBAUM, K.C. 700 1 $aKIM, S.-H. 700 1 $aLIZASO, J. 700 1 $aMÜLLER, C. 700 1 $aNAKAGAWA, H. 700 1 $aNARESH KUMAR, S. 700 1 $aNENDEL, C. 700 1 $aO'LEARY, G.J. 700 1 $aOLESEN, J.E. 700 1 $aORIOL, P. 700 1 $aOSBORNE, T.M. 700 1 $aPALOSUO, T. 700 1 $aPRAVIA, V. 700 1 $aPRIESACK, E. 700 1 $aRIPOCHE, D. 700 1 $aROSENZWEIG, C. 700 1 $aRUANE, A.C. 700 1 $aRUGET, F. 700 1 $aSAU, F. 700 1 $aSEMENOV, M.A. 700 1 $aSHCHERBAK, I. 700 1 $aSINGH, B. 700 1 $aSINGH, U. 700 1 $aSOO, H.K. 700 1 $aSTEDUTO, P. 700 1 $aSTÖCKLE, C. 700 1 $aSTRATONOVITCH, P. 700 1 $aSTRECK, T. 700 1 $aSUPIT, I. 700 1 $aTANG, L. 700 1 $aTAO, F. 700 1 $aTEIXEIRA, E.I. 700 1 $aTHORBURN, P. 700 1 $aTIMLIN, D. 700 1 $aTRAVASSO, M. 700 1 $aRÖTTER, R.P. 700 1 $aWAHA, K. 700 1 $aWALLACH, D. 700 1 $aWHITE, J.W. 700 1 $aWILKENS, P. 700 1 $aWILLIAMS, J.R. 700 1 $aWOLF, J. 700 1 $aYIN, X. 700 1 $aYOSHIDA, H. 700 1 $aZHANG, Z. 700 1 $aZHU, Y. 773 $tAgricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2015$gv.214-215, p. 483-493.
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INIA Las Brujas (LB) |
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Biblioteca (s) : |
INIA Las Brujas. |
Fecha actual : |
18/06/2015 |
Actualizado : |
18/06/2015 |
Tipo de producción científica : |
Informes Agroclimáticos |
Autor : |
GIMENEZ, A.; CASTAÑO, J.; FUREST, J.; AUNCHAYNA, R. |
Afiliación : |
AGUSTIN EDUARDO GIMENEZ FUREST, INIA (Instituto Nacional de Investigación Agropecuaria), Uruguay; JOSE PEDRO CASTAÑO SANCHEZ, INIA (Instituto Nacional de Investigación Agropecuaria), Uruguay; JOSE MARIA FUREST CROCCO, INIA (Instituto Nacional de Investigación Agropecuaria), Uruguay; ROSSINA MARIANA AUNCHAYNA REILLY, INIA (Instituto Nacional de Investigación Agropecuaria), Uruguay. |
Título : |
Informe Agroclimático 2010 - Situación a Noviembre. |
Fecha de publicación : |
2010 |
Fuente / Imprenta : |
Montevideo (Uruguay): INIA, 2010. |
Páginas : |
4 p. |
Idioma : |
Español |
Palabras claves : |
AGROCLIMA; AGROCLIMATOLOGÍA; BOLETIN AGROCLIMÁTICO; CARACTERIZACIÓN AGROCLIMÁTICA; DIRECCION VIENTO; ESTACIONES AGROMETEOROLOGICAS; ESTACIONES AUTOMATICAS; ESTACIONES INIA; ESTADO DEL TIEMPO; ESTRÉS HÍDRICO; GRAFICAS AGROCLIMATICOS; GRAS; HELIOFANOGRAFO; INFORMACION SATELITAL; INUNDACIONES; LLUVIAS DIARIAS; MAXIMA; MEDIA; MINIMA; PANEL SOLAR; PERSPECTIVAS CLIMATICAS; PLUVIOMETRO; PRECIPITACION NACIONAL; PREVENCION HELADAS; PRONOSTICO; SENSOR; SIMETRICO; TANQUE A; TERMOCUPLAS; TERMOHIDROGRAFO; VARIABLES AGROCLIMATICAS; VELETA. |
Thesagro : |
AGROCLIMATOLOGIA; CAMBIO CLIMATICO; CLIMA; CLIMATOLOGIA; ESTACIONES METEOROLOGICAS; ESTRES HIDRICO; EVAPORACION; EVAPOTRANSPIRACION; HUMEDAD; HUMEDAD RELATIVA; LLUVIA; METEOROLOGIA; PERSPECTIVAS; PLUVIOMETROS; PRONOSTICO DEL TIEMPO; SENSORES; SISTEMAS; SISTEMAS DE INFORMACION; SUELO; TEMPERATURA; TERMOMETROS. |
Asunto categoría : |
P40 Meteorología y climatología |
URL : |
http://www.ainfo.inia.uy/digital/bitstream/item/4685/1/Inf.Agr.-noviembre-2010.pdf
http://www.inia.uy/Publicaciones/Paginas/publicacion-2200.aspx
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Marc : |
LEADER 02043nam a2200781 a 4500 001 1052837 005 2015-06-18 008 2010 bl uuuu u0uu1 u #d 100 1 $aGIMENEZ, A. 245 $aInforme Agroclimático 2010 - Situación a Noviembre.$h[electronic resource] 260 $aMontevideo (Uruguay): INIA$c2010 300 $a4 p. 650 $aAGROCLIMATOLOGIA 650 $aCAMBIO CLIMATICO 650 $aCLIMA 650 $aCLIMATOLOGIA 650 $aESTACIONES METEOROLOGICAS 650 $aESTRES HIDRICO 650 $aEVAPORACION 650 $aEVAPOTRANSPIRACION 650 $aHUMEDAD 650 $aHUMEDAD RELATIVA 650 $aLLUVIA 650 $aMETEOROLOGIA 650 $aPERSPECTIVAS 650 $aPLUVIOMETROS 650 $aPRONOSTICO DEL TIEMPO 650 $aSENSORES 650 $aSISTEMAS 650 $aSISTEMAS DE INFORMACION 650 $aSUELO 650 $aTEMPERATURA 650 $aTERMOMETROS 653 $aAGROCLIMA 653 $aAGROCLIMATOLOGÍA 653 $aBOLETIN AGROCLIMÁTICO 653 $aCARACTERIZACIÓN AGROCLIMÁTICA 653 $aDIRECCION VIENTO 653 $aESTACIONES AGROMETEOROLOGICAS 653 $aESTACIONES AUTOMATICAS 653 $aESTACIONES INIA 653 $aESTADO DEL TIEMPO 653 $aESTRÉS HÍDRICO 653 $aGRAFICAS AGROCLIMATICOS 653 $aGRAS 653 $aHELIOFANOGRAFO 653 $aINFORMACION SATELITAL 653 $aINUNDACIONES 653 $aLLUVIAS DIARIAS 653 $aMAXIMA 653 $aMEDIA 653 $aMINIMA 653 $aPANEL SOLAR 653 $aPERSPECTIVAS CLIMATICAS 653 $aPLUVIOMETRO 653 $aPRECIPITACION NACIONAL 653 $aPREVENCION HELADAS 653 $aPRONOSTICO 653 $aSENSOR 653 $aSIMETRICO 653 $aTANQUE A 653 $aTERMOCUPLAS 653 $aTERMOHIDROGRAFO 653 $aVARIABLES AGROCLIMATICAS 653 $aVELETA 700 1 $aCASTAÑO, J. 700 1 $aFUREST, J. 700 1 $aAUNCHAYNA, R.
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